The plan's spine
Coverage: whose budget, which sectors
The measure targets the bottom two income quintiles — households averaging $35,046 and $50,054 of annual spending in 2024. Sectors enter by budget weight times restoration-test fit, never by fee salience. What can't be priced is counted; what isn't covered is disclosed at a zero gap, never hidden.
The map
Q1/Q2 = lowest and second income quintiles, mean annual dollars (share of total spending). * marks 2023-vintage detail, shares on 2023 totals. Rows partially overlap the CE's published hierarchy; the exact non-overlapping map ships with the methods pre-registration.
| Sector | Q1 $/yr (share) | Q2 $/yr (share) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter — rented dwellings | 5,781 (16.5%) | 6,225 (12.4%) | Phase 2 flagship — mandatory-fee stack (trash, package/tech, convenience, lease-term parity); collection already running |
| Food at home | 3,843 (11.0%) | 4,952 (9.9%) | Null control — CPI's per-unit machinery already captures shrinkflation; our gap here should be ≈ 0, and we publish that test |
| Healthcare | 3,445 (9.8%) | 4,826 (9.6%) | Excluded, counted — no posted replication menu exists; see the Register |
| Utilities | 2,941 (8.7%)* | 3,987 (8.2%)* | Out for now — regulated tariffs; revisited if fixed-charge unbundling spreads |
| Transportation (vehicles, gasoline) | 4,938 (14.1%) | 8,156 (16.3%) | Out — commodity prices, no restoration grammar |
| — Airline fares | 167 (0.5%)* | 274 (0.6%)* | Phase 1 methods lab — the sharpest verified events, deliberately small weight |
| Connectivity + subscription media | ≈1,540 (4.5%)* | ≈2,220 (4.4%)* | Phase 1 (streaming) + Phase 2 (wireless, internet) |
| Food away from home / delivery | 1,655 (4.7%) | 2,448 (4.9%) | Phase 3 candidate — priced service fees, ambiguous baselines; scope memo first |
| Entertainment fees & admissions | 168 (0.5%)* | 339 (0.7%)* | Phase 3 candidate — ticketing now FTC-disclosed all-in |
| Lodging on trips | 166 (0.5%)* | 338 (0.7%)* | Phase 2 — with a falsification test: if our seam is real, the FTC all-in rule should compress it |
| Banking fees | n/a | n/a | Negative control — overdraft fees fell >50% since 2019; the measure must print it |
| Apparel, personal care, education | 2,379 | 2,394 | Excluded, counted — no priced restoration grammar |
| All other (owned-dwelling shelter, furnishings, insurance & pensions, contributions, misc.) | ≈8,000 (≈23%) | — | Zero-imputed in any composite; itemized in every coverage statement |
The rule that keeps this honest
Sectors are chosen from a pre-registered frame — every Consumer Expenditure category above a bottom-40% budget-share threshold, screened by one question: does a priced path back to last year's experience exist on today's menu? Sectors where the answer is no are excluded and counted. Sectors where the expected gap is zero or negative (groceries, banking) are included because they can prove the method isn't a ratchet. The one thing this map never does is pick sectors because their fees make headlines.